Home prices up, down, depending on source

South Florida home prices have fallen harder than in any major metropolitan area, according to one report. Other measures painted a brighter picture.

In the past year, South Florida home prices have:

A) Fallen 12.4 percent.

B) Stayed flat.

C) Risen 3 percent in Miami-Dade, declined 5 percent in Broward.

Answer: All of the above, depending on which survey you believe.

According to a widely followed national home price index released Wednesday, prices of homes in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties fell 12.4 percent in October from last year. The Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index says the South Florida region posted the worst decline of 20 major metropolitan areas it follows.

But Florida Association of Realtors sales data say median prices for single-family houses in Miami-Dade and Broward remained virtually flat at around $354,000 since October 2006 even as the number of homes selling plummeted. Palm Beach prices declined 5 percent. November numbers are out Monday.

And the federal government says Broward house prices as of Sept. 30 were down 4.7 percent from a year ago, while Miami-Dade's prices were up 3.45 percent.

The discrepancies boil down to the very different methods the groups use to calculate their numbers. Each method provides a snapshot -- and only a snapshot -- in a very diverse real estate scene whose more than 1.2 million properties stretch from upscale waterfront communities and suburbs to inner-city neighborhoods. Analyzing just how bad the market is occupies cocktail chatter and boardroom debates, and these differing data highlight the difficulties of figuring out exactly what is going on.

The Realtors organization collects information from the database that real estate agents use to list homes for sale, the Multiple Listing Service. The group calculates the median price -- the point at which half the homes sold for more, half for less -- of all the homes sold during a particular month.

The Case-Shiller index, named for economists Karl Case and Robert Shiller, examines price changes of the same house over time. For each house that has sold twice, a computer model assigns a weight based on several factors -- for example, how long between sales and whether the home appears to have been remodeled. It does not include condos.

And the government's Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight analyzes home values reported on new mortgages and refinancings -- but only for mortgages of less than $417,000, the maximum amount covered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

To veteran real estate analyst Michael Cannon, all methods are unsatisfying. ''Wall Street does not understand real estate,'' Cannon said of the Case-Shiller index. Computer models, he said, can't possibly account for all the variables that affect a home's sale price or an overall real estate market.

And the Multiple Listing Service that Realtors use accounts for only about 42 percent of the market, said Cannon, whose commercial real estate column is published in The Miami Herald. (Others estimate the listing service covers two-thirds of the market.) More importantly, especially in a market that is seeing so few sales, the median price of the homes and condos that sold in any given month paints an incomplete picture.

So what is happening out there? Cannon, whose firm analyzes property valuations for banks, developers and government, says prices are declining from the overvalued peaks seen between 2003 and 2005 in certain segments. But, ``overall, we have not seen any major decline.''

Homeowners who bought at the peak are probably losing money if they have to sell, but for the most part, homeowners are still ahead.

''That's why I call it a rollback, not a crash,'' Cannon said. ``If there was a crash, you'd see tremendous price discounts being offered. You see all these sales pitches, but overall you don't see sellers panicking.''

That analysis rings true to Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger Wooten Maxfield, one of the largest real estate brokerages in Miami-Dade and Broward.

The average asking home price in Miami-Dade, he says, has dropped 44 percent since June 2005, from more than $1 million to about $600,000. The median selling price, he said, has fallen around 8 percent in that time. ''Our sellers are becoming very realistic,'' Shuffield said.

Homes selling for less than $300,000 are barely budging, and the number of homes for sale in that price range is voluminous. Shuffield attributes that to first-time and low-income buyers having trouble paying their mortgages, many of them sub-prime or adjustable. But homes over $1 million are selling well.

Shuffield also notes that while EWM's sales in the last 90 days are down 75 percent from two years ago, the number of rental deals are up 54 percent. ''So many people are just afraid to buy,'' he said.

Foreign buyers, taking advantage of the weak dollar, will also keep prices from dipping much lower. ''The fact that we live in an international place gives us an advantage over probably every other market in the nation,'' he said. ``We have buyers from every corner of the globe.''

Nationally, the Case-Shiller index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 6.1 percent. Among the 20 metropolitan areas used in the broader index, 11 posted record monthly declines and all 20 declined in October compared to September.

After South Florida, the Tampa region posted a year-over-year loss of 11.8 percent. Detroit, Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego also posted double-digit year-over-year declines.

Only three areas -- Charlotte, N.C.; Portland, Ore.; and Seattle -- posted year-over-year home price appreciation in October.